Hybrids, it turns out, are shit
Hybrids turn out to be shit after all.
I have always held a simple perspective on hybrids -- that they were an easy bridge technology. Hybrids were going to help people become accustomed to the notion of cars that run on batteries. From that perspective, hybrids were a great idea -- deliver a single generation of vehicles that get people used to the idea of charging, get them to feel the simplicity of electric driving and then, have them move on to fully electric travel.
Unfortunately, the bad news with respect to hybrids just keeps coming. Instead of being a stepping stone from ICE to BEV, they've turned into a fig leaf for oil and gas companies, not to mention the auto companies making them. A bridge to nowhere, or not far enough, perhaps.
First came the news that hybrids are actually shit at the job of being a car. Neither fast, nor reliable nor efficient, it turns out they're the worst compromise. This should surprise absolutely nobody.
When your hybrid breaks down, it turns out to be hard to fix, and expensive to boot.
Maintenance costs for an ICE vehicle rise in the later portions of the vehicle's lifetime. Emissions worsen too. NOX for example, doubles over a ten-year span. Catalytic converters degrade and become less effective. Combustion becomes less effective as rings wear and deposits accumulate. Some ICE vehicles become gross polluters, producing a disproportionate share of pollutants for that age cohort.
These well-known factors for ICE will continue to hold for anything that has a combustion component, which means both traditional hybrids (Prius etc) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs).
In more news that surprises nobody, PHEVs are also less efficient than claimed by manufacturers. The Fraunhofer people, doing great work, analyzed mountains of driving data to uncover the insight that the electric-only mode is not so much electric-only as it is largely a poor gas+electric compromise.
Two key factors emerge from their study: (1) PHEVs do more combustion miles than assumed, and (2) those combustion miles are much dirtier than manufacturers claims.
Company car owners charge their PHEVs less, with many never plugging in at all. Even in electric-only mode it turns out that the gas engine kicks in more frequently than claimed.
Honestly, nothing about this shitshow should surprise you -- BEVs are superior in every measurable way, for the vast majority of use cases.
Anyone being pitched a PHEV should be shaking their heads and walking away, wondering how these things even exist.
When you have two drivetrain systems, you have, wait for it ... twice as many things to go wrong. Even though Consumer Reports steadfastly refuses to come out and say it, the fact that EVs are stunningly reliable, because they're ... stunningly simple, is supported by virtually every EV driver.
As an EV owner, I make a point of engaging other EV drivers.
At recharging stops on long journeys or in social contexts, I ask people how they feel about their EV, how it compares to ICE they have owned and whether they have any misgivings about switching to all-electric.
I talked to a State Trooper at the bagel shop the other day. He loves his Electric Mustang patrol car, with his only gripe being it takes too long to charge and his bulky equipment is uncomfortable in the sporty, hip-hugging seats.
Of course it takes too long to charge because they have him on a 30A circuit back at the depot and Law Enforcement Officers often work double shifts and occasionally do a lot of driving, chasing down miscreants. He needs to be able to charge up in half an hour. How the State didn't invest in something beefy for charging I have no idea. I mean, you have a 50k car, surely you'd spring for a 20k charger? I guarantee you that his facility already has 480v three phase needed for L3.
I have dozens of samples from interactions all across the spectrum, all of which agree -- an EV requires effectively no maintenance. Stories abound along the lines of “nothing to do but tires, wiper blades and washer fluid”.
Yes, there have been well-documented recalls of the HV systems, or the 12v system or of some BMS problem, but not a single driver that I have spoken to had these issues. It's almost as though the actual data were somehow being ... manipulated? Yes, I know, sample size etc etc. What we really need now is some kind of objective data.
The Germans, in that efficiency they're known for, have already done that analysis, using millions of miles of road data. I have discussed this previously in my post “The Last Car You’ll Ever Own”, where I explore some of the possible second-order effects of having vehicles that last a long time.
The key here is "the vast majority of use cases". If you tow a caravan five hundred miles to and from your office in the Arctic Circle, sure, your BEV is still in development. You can keep using your gas truck and we won't blame you. But let's not keep bleating about how BEVs can't do [niche thing A] or deal with [edge case B].
Those are niche needs and edge cases. If you visit relatives in North Carolina, a ten hour drive from your home, sure, use a gas car if you're too lazy to plan your charging stops, but let's be clear, there are plenty of charging stops. Sure, there are hinterlands and areas not well served by DC fast chargers, but you can easily find out if you're one of those edge cases just by looking at the charger map on PlugShare.
If your Appalachian hunting lodge is a hundred miles from the nearest DC fast charger and you can't add a 40Amp circuit to the lodge, then sure, keep that diesel F150. Just don't pretend that you're representative of the vast, vast majority of drivers, people that just need to get groceries and pick up the kids from school. Just for reference, you can easily add a 40A circuit to a house with 100A service because your EV charges at night, when there's plenty of ampacity available.
Let's be honest with ourselves -- ICE, Hybrid and PHEV are fig leaves. This is the parable of Eden in reverse -- we haven't eaten of the fruit of the tree of knowledge of good and evil yet, but we still have the fig leaves. Let's open our eyes and move in the direction of progress.
While we’re at it, maybe we could employ some Italian tailors to make us something nice to wear.